25/10/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed little changed. Support came from the USDA announcing private exporters reported export sales of 516,000 MT of US soybeans for delivery to China during the 2016/17 marketing year. Malaysian palm oil was lower though, adding a slightly negative vibe. Brazilian beans are said to be 28% planted versus 20% a year ago and 27% on average. Mato Grosso is well advanced at 42% done (20% a year ago), and so too is Parana state at more than 50% complete (35% a year ago). EU rapeseed futures were lower despite MARS confirming poor establishment of newly sown crops in the two largest producing nations - France and Germany. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.90 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.02 1/4, unchanged; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $308.20, up $0.90; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 35.80, down 19 points.
Corn: The market closed around a cent higher. Fresh news was limited. South Korea's MFG were reported to have purchased 60,000 MT of optional origin corn for Jan 2017 delivery. Chinese customs data shows that their DDGS imports in Spetember were down sharply (-70%) versus a year ago as the new anti-dumping tariffs kick-in. Anecdotal reports suggest that US farmer selling is light at these levels. "Producers continue to favour holding their corn and marketing their soybeans. Spot prices today indicate a producer will lose on every bushel he markets in corn whereas he will clear a profit on every bushel of soybeans," said FCStone. Ukraine's corn harvest is 54% done at 13.28 MMT. Russia's corn harvest is 52.6% complete at 8.5 MMT. The EU Commission's MARS unit lowered their forecast for EU-28 corn yields from 6.84 MT/ha to 6.82 MT/ha (and versus 6.93 MT/ha for the 5-year average). Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.49 1/4, up 1 cent; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.59, up 1 cent.
Wheat: The wheat market closed narrowly mixed. Egypt bought 420,000 MT of mixed Romanian/Russian wheat at around $193/tonne C&F. IKAR lowered their forecast for Russia's wheat exports in 2016/17 from 30 MMT to 29.5 MMT, although that's still a record. Russia's Ag Min said that this year's wheat harvest is 98% complete at 75.8 MMT in bunker weight. Russian winter grain (mostly wheat) plantings for the 2017 harvest are past 95% done. Chinese customs data shows that they have imported 2.86 MMT of wheat in the first nine months of 2016, a 27% increase on the same period in 2015. Australia was the largest supplier, accounting for 42% of that total. The EU Commission's MARS unit said that winter wheat plantings were seeing "overall fair progress, despite some hiccups." They trimmed their forecast for 2016 soft wheat yields from 5.63 MT/ha to 5.62 MT/ha, down from 5.83 MT/ha for the 5-year average. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.04 1/4, up 1 3/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.13 1/2, up 1 cent; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.24, down 3/4 cent.
25/10/16 -- EU grains closed mixed, but mostly higher. Nov 16 London wheat set a hew highest close for a front month since Dec 2014 helped by a slightly weaker sterling.
At the close Nov 16 London wheat was up GBP1.85/tonne at GBP136.35/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was EUR0.75/tonne firmer at EUR162.75/tonne, Nov 16 Paris corn was up EUR2.50/tonne at EUR161.75/tonne, Nov 16 Paris rapeseed was EUR2.25/tonne easier at EUR391.25/tonne.
The EU Commission's MARS unit lowered their forecast for EU-28 corn yields from 6.84 MT/ha to 6.82 MT/ha (and versus 6.93 MT/ha for the 5-year average).
"This analysis period was marked by contrasting weather conditions. Among the outstanding weather phenomena were the persistent dry conditions, which in France marked the end of a difficult season," they said.
Looking ahead. "these conditions also hampered the sowing of winter cereals in France, western Germany and the Benelux countries due to overly dry seedbeds, and negatively impacted emergence. By contrast, heavy rains in the first half of October are responsible for a marked rain surplus in Poland and southeastern Europe," they added.
For winter rapeseed specifically they highlighted "mediocre sowing and emergence conditions in France and Germany."
"Precipitation was clearly below average from mid-August to mid-September in large parts of France and Germany, the two main EU-28 producers of rapeseed. As a consequence of the dry conditions, part of the rapeseed was not sown at all in France," they noted.
Conditions are more "adequate" in Poland, Europe's third largest producer, in the UK "conditions are rated as being average and rapeseed is quite well established, but there is currently high pest and disease pressure," they added.
Egypt's GASC bought 420,000 MT of wheat, their largest single purchase of the season so far, in their latest tender. They paid an average of $192.62/tonne C&F for 240,000 MT of Romanian wheat and $193.41/tonne for 180,000 MT of Russian wheat.
Despite that, rumblings remain that this year's Russian wheat quality isn't great, with IKAR today reducing their forecast for the nation's wheat exports in 2016/17 by 0.5 MMT to 29.5 MMT (still a record).
Their 2016 wheat harvest is said to be 98.1% complete at 75.8 MMT in bunker weight. Barley harvesting is 97% done at 19.0 MMT and the corn harvest is 52.6% complete at 8.5 MMT.
Russian winter plantings for the 2017 grain harvest are now more than 95% complete on 16.5 million ha.
The 2016 Ukraine grain harvest is said to be 86% complete at 52.27 MMT. That includes 13.28 MMT of corn (54% harvested).
24/10/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher, but off session highs. Very strong weekly export inspections - 2.739 MMT - were the 4th largest week ever and the largest for a single week since Nov 2014. Accumulative inspections are now 10.45 MMT versus 9.44 MMT for same period last year. Nov 16 beans hit $9.99 3/4 cents, but hit resistance at $10 and couldn't break through, falling back to close at $9.92. Dr Cordonnier said that Argentine growers may prefer to store and carry a proportion of their 2017 crop all the way into 2018 to take advantage of the new then relaxation of the export duty, which comes down at the rate of 0.5% per month starting Jan 2018. What's left of the Canadian canola harvest is stuck out in the fields under snow. Malaysian palm oil hit the highest since Mar 2014 on more production worries. China reported that they had imported 7.19 MMT of beans in September, which finishes off the Oct15/Sep16 marketing year at a record 83.22 MMT. Brazil's exports to China last month were down 25%, providing a window of opportunity for the US. After the close the USDA reported this year's US soybean harvest at 76% complete, up from 62% a week ago and exactly in line with the 5-year average. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.92, up 9 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.02 1/4, up 10 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $307.30, up $0.80; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 35.99, up 87 points.
Corn: Corn closed lower. Unlike beans corn didn't have support from bumper weekly export inspections. These came in at only 541,527 MT - down 38% from last week. This was possibly due to the strong demand for US soybean exports at the ports squeezing out corn. "Friday’s CFTC report showed the managed money crowd was stealthier in covering their large corn short than the trade had estimated (last week). With only a 50K net short the motivation to cover their position without a new bullish fundamental story evaporated and the sheer size of the current crop weighed on values," said FCStone. US weather forecasts predict rain for the corn belt Tues/Weds, followed by dryness and warmer than normal temperatures for most of the Midwest. The USDA pegged this year's US corn harvest at 61% complete versus 46% a week ago and 62% on average at this time. Black Sea corn exports are picking up as their harvest progresses. Ukraine's corn harvest is now past halfway done (51% complete). Their seaports exported 320 TMT of corn last week, according to APK Inform. Russia exported 183 TMT of corn last week, according to customs data. Russia's 2016/17 corn exports to date are 717 TMT. Chinese customs data shows that their corn imports in September were negligible. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.48 1/4, down 4 1/4 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.58, down 4 1/4 cents.
Wheat: Wheat closed lower. Weekly export inspections of just 244,331 MT set the tone, down more than 50% from last week. Inspections a year ago were 316 TMT. China imported 431 TMT of wheat last month versus 395 TMT a year ago. Australia was the largest supplier with 192 TMT. The USDA's FAS in Tokyo forecast Japan's wheat import needs at 5.8 MMT this season versus 5.7 MMT a year previously. Lanworth forecast a colder than normal US winter, with widespread cold 2-4F below normal across the Central US, However, above normal snowfall should mitigate any wheat losses due to winterkill, they said. The USDA said that US winter wheat planting for the 2017 harvest was 79% done versus 72% a week ago and 82% on average at this time. Emergence is 60% versus 47% a week ago and 58% for the 5-year average. In their first crop condition report of the season they placed 59% of the crop in good to excellent condition versus 47% a year ago. The Black Sea countries continue to export wheat at a brisk pace. Ukraine's seaports shipped out 544 TMT of wheat last week, and Russia's 441 TMT. Egypt's GASC announced a late tender for wheat for Dec 1-10 shipment. Russia and Romania have been the most successful bidders lately. Results are expected late tomorrow afternoon. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.02 1/2, down 12 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.12 1/2, down 9 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.24 3/4, down 4 1/4 cents.
The day ended with Nov 16 London wheat up GBP0.50/tonne at GBP134.50/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was EUR1.00/tonne lower at EUR162.00/tonne, Nov 16 corn was unchanged at EUR159.25/tonne and Nov 16 rapeseed finished down EUR0.50/tonne at EUR393.50/tonne.
Rapeseed got early support from Chicago soybeans setting their sights on a test of the $10/bushel mark - front month Nov 16 hit $9.99 3/4 cents before easing back into the close.
Fresh news was relatively thin on the ground to start the new week.
Black Sea exports continue at a pace, especially now that the corn harvest is gathering momentum.
APK Inform reported that Ukraine's seaports shipped out 544 TMT of wheat last week, along with 143 TMT of barley and 320 TMT of corn. Top home was Egypt (107 TMT) followed by Saudi Arabia and South Korea (63 TMT each).
Ukraine's 2016 harvest is reported to be 85% complete at 51.4 MMT. Corn harvesting has now reached past halfway (51% done), for a crop of 12.5 MMT so far. The Ag Ministry forecast final grain production at 63 MMT.
Russia's exports were only slightly less impressive at 441 TMT of wheat, 16 TMT of barley and 183 TMT of corn. Trade talk remains that despite bringing in a record wheat harvest this year, the quality of the crop isn't great, which may reflect in a tail-off in exports in the second half of the season. It would also be bearish for EU feed wheat exports.
Russia's exports to date are 11.8 MMT, down 4% on 12.3 MMT a year ago. That includes 9.68 MMT of wheat, 1.35 MMT of barley and 717 TMT of corn.
Egypt's GASC announced a late tender for wheat for Dec 1-10 shipment. Russia and Romania have been the most successful bidders lately. Results are expected late tomorrow afternoon.
Lanworth forecast a colder than normal US winter, with widespread cold 2-4F below normal across the Central US, However, above normal snowfall should mitigate any wheat losses due to winterkill, they said.
21/10/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed higher on the day and for the week. The weekly Commitment of Traders report shows managed money adding around 14k lots to their net soybean long to leave them 63.5k net long. The trade is looking for the USDA to put 2016 US
soybean harvesting at around 70% complete on Monday. Informa estimated 2017 US soybean plantings up 5.7% at a record 88.5 million acres, implying production at 4.15 billion bu using a return to "normal" yields of 47.2 bu/acre. The USDA’s Attache to Argentina estimates the 2016/17 soy crop at 55 MMT vs the USDA’s 57 MMT forecast. Winter rapeseed planting in Ukraine is said to be complete on 107% of the government's originally forecast area at 775k ha. Dryness has caused some emergence issues. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.83, up 7 1/2 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.92 1/4, up 7 1/2 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $306.50, up $1.90; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 35.12, up 7 points. For the week nearby beans were up 10 1/2 cents, meal gained $5.90 and oil added 74 points.
Corn: The corn market closed slightly higher on the day, but marginally lower for the week. The weekly Commitment of Traders report shows managed money covering in around 61k contracts of their overall net short position in corn. Informa placed 2017 US corn plantings down 3.7% on this year. Average yields of 170.4 bu/acre would bring in a crop of 14.242 billion bushels. Argentine corn planting only moved on 2.9 percentage points this week to 34.7% done, said the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. They see final plantings up 27% year-on-year at 4.9 million ha. FranceAgriMer said that corn harvesting there was 39% complete (versus 52% a year ago). Ukraine corn is 45% harvested at 10.92 MMT. Russia's crop is 48.3% harvested at 7.7 MMT. "The 5 day weather models bring in moderate to heavy rains in the central region of the Midwest early next week and the 6-15 day models expand that to the entire Midwest which is expected to slow the harvest progress significantly, said FCStone. Harvesting was 46% done as of last Sunday. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.52 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.62 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents, For the week that puts Dec 16 corn 1 3/4 cents lower, with Mar 17 down 1 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed lower on the day and mixed for the week across the three exchanges. The weekly Commitment of Traders report shows managed money covering in around 33k lots of their net short in Chicago wheat for the week through to Tuesday night. Informa estimated US all wheat acres for the 2017 harvest at the lowest levels since 1970 at 48.9 million acres. Winter wheat plantings were seen at 35.42 million acres. The USDA's FAS in Brazil estimated their wheat crop this year at 6 MMT. Harvesting of that is taking place now. Dr Cordonnier reports that conditions are excessively wet, causing harvest delays and some production and quality concerns for the third year running. FranceAgriMer reported winter wheat sowing at 43% complete (23% last week and 52% last year at this time). Russia's winter grains are said to be 93% planted. Ukraine growers have 82% of their winter wheat area sown. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.14 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.21 1/2, down 1 1/2 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.29, down 2 1/4 cents. For the week that puts CBOT wheat 6 1/2 cents lower, with Kansas up 3 3/4 cents and Minneapolis up 1/2 a cent.
At the finish Nov 16 London wheat was GBP0.20/tonne higher at GBP134.00/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was up EUR0.50/tonne at EUR163.00/tonne, Nov 16 Paris corn also ended EUR0.50/tonne firmer at EUR159.25/tonne and Nov 16 Paris rapeseed was EUR1.25/tonne higher at EUR394.00/tonne.
For the week that puts London wheat GBP0.30/tonne lower (breaking a prior weekly winning run of five), with Paris wheat and corn EUR0.25/tonne easier and rapeseed EUR5.50/tonne higher.
Brussels said that they'd only issued 209 TMT worth of soft wheat export licences this past week, a pretty dismal total. Still, season to date exports are now 7.51 MMT, a 16% increase over last year, although that rate of rise is slowing.
"Wheat export pace over the remainder of the season will be expected to slow if the EU Commission’s end of season forecast of 25 MMT is to be realised," said the HGCA.
"With lower levels of exports from the EU likely to be a key feature for global trade this season the door is open for other key exporters to increase their share of the market," they added
Only 64 TMT worth of EU barley exports were approved this week, taking the cumulative total to 1.28 MMT, a 69% fall year-on-year.
FranceAgriMer said that winter wheat planting across the Channel is 43% complete, up from only 23% done a week ago but still lagging 52% this time last year. Barley planting is 61% complete (39% last week and 73% a year ago). Corn harvesting is seen at 39% done versus 23% last week and 52% in 2015. Final 2016 corn production is estimated 6.6% down at 12.2 MMT.
Ukraine said that they'd harvested 83% of this year's grain crop, bringing in 49.87 MMT so far. Corn harvesting is 45% complete at 10.92 MMT. Plantings for the 2017 harvest are 77% done, with 82% of next year's winter wheat crop now in, along with 43% of the government's projected barley area.
Ukraine's total grain exports so far this season stand at 12.44 MMT, including 7.82 MMT of wheat, 1.14 MMT of corn and 3.43 MMT of barley.
Russia said that their 2016 harvest is 93.9% complete at 117.5 MMT. That includes 98% of this year's wheat (75.7 MMT) and 96.9% of this year's barley (19.0 MMT). Corn harvesting is 48.3% done at 7.7 MMT. Winter planting for the 2017 harvest is said to be 93.2% complete on 16.2 million ha (versus 15.5 million ha this time a year ago).
20/10/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower despite weekly export sales of 2 MMT being announced today by the USDA. Cumulative sales are now 36% above last year. The USDA also announced 192,000 MT of US beans sold to unknown under the daily reporting system. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment on beans found a fairly even spread - Bullish: 6 Bearish: 10 Neutral: 8. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.75 1/2, down 6 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.84 3/4, down 5 3/4 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $304.60, down $1.80; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 35.05, down 35 points.
Corn: The market closed lower. Lanworth estimated the Argentine corn area at 28.4 million ha, well below the USDA's figure of 36.5 million. Weekly export sales came in above expectations ayt just over 1 MMT. Trade forecasts were for sales of 700,000 to 900,000 MT. Commitments to date are running 10.6 MMT ahead of a year ago. An exceptionally wet forecast in the 6-15 outlook could stall the US harvest. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment on corn found - Bullish: 8 Bearish: 6 Neutral: 10. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.51, down 6 1/2 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.60 3/4, down 6 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed. Weekly export sales of 513,800 MT were in line with expectations. The USDA also announced the sale of 114,000 MT of US wheat sold to unknown destinations for 2016/17 delivery. Egypt announced that they had bought 120,000 MT of Russian wheat in their tender. for Nov 21-30 shipment. The prices paid averaged less than $190/tonne including freight versus a comparable US offer of around $207/tonne. Harvest progress in Canada remains slow. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.17, down 3 1/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.23, down 2 1/4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.30 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents.